Tacoma Urbanist

Feb. 8, 2008 at 2:21pm

Obama Outdraws Clinton in Washington State 3 to 1; 17k in Seattle to 5k in Tacoma

 

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both appeared at different venues in Washington State today.  Obama in Seattle, Clinton in Tacoma. 

However, there was a difference.  A big one.

The press reports indicate the following: Obama appeared at the Key Arena in Seattle drawing an an overflowing crowd of 17,000.  Clinton filled the Fieldhouse at University of Puget Sound with a draw of 5000.

Commentary

Politicians and performers know very well not to play to a half empty venue.  It looks bad.  Could Clinton have filled Key Arena?  Could she have filled the Tacoma Dome?  Unknown.  However, Obama's confidence that he could book and fill Key Arena easily, and followed up with action, says something.  I don't think is was just a coincidence.

Plus, Erik Emery posts that UPS is (still) Obama Land.  Today, I drove by UPS and saw many Obama yard signs around campus but not a single Clinton one.  Doesn't look a huge student surge for Clinton.  If so, where?  Interestly, the event was seen as a nurses rally, and not just one for a general draw like Obama's in Seattle and not a big one for local students from what I can tell.

Prediction:

The citizen delegates from the caucuses will overwhelmingly favor Obama.  Perhaps to a level that will suprise the nation.  Who knows how Washington politician "superdelegates" will vote.  No dout, many of them have long time good relationships with Clinton.  Governor Gregoire has endorsed Obama today.  The Washington superdelegates should consider their electorate in Washington as Governor Gregoire has. 

Washington residents do not want to believe that they have democratically selected a nominee only to have it overridden by elected officials who had the luxury of being elected by the a raw vote.  Yes, I know that's their right, but it doesn't mean they have to exercise it.

Will Tacoma and the rest of Washington be able to push Obama over the top?  We will see in the caucuses tomorrow.

comments [29]  |  posted under clinton, obama, tacoma, washington

Comments

by jenyum on 2/8/2008 @ 2:34pm
There really wasn't room for one more person in the field house for the Clinton event.

So I'm not sure that's all that significant. (Not taking sides when I say this, just an observation.)

by thriceallamerican on 2/8/2008 @ 2:40pm
I'm with Jenyum...I don't think this is a fair comparison on which to base a "straw poll". Hillary also drew thousands last night at a Seattle event.

(That said, I think Obama will fare well here, especially in the Puget Sound region. Erik Hanberg looked at some interesting survey results the other day from the only recent survey in WA...grant that we can't compare this to any other surveys, but Obama outpolled Hillary in almost every demographic except for 65+ year olds. They even broke it down a bit to tell us how "likely caucus-goers" leaned.)

by jcbetty on 2/8/2008 @ 2:40pm
I was one of the 5 thousand in Tacoma... I found it a point very well taken that she came here to recognize us when she could have filled a bigger space, elsewhere. I don't think those numbers should be indicative of anything-- I think Obama makes some strong, fine points, but having seen and heard Hillary's position on issues, I think I'm liking her better. I think voters should arm themselves with information beyond rhetoric, show up, and the caucuses,and vote. Period

by thriceallamerican on 2/8/2008 @ 2:41pm
Hmmm, screwed up the hyperlinks a bit there,and no edit button... Anyway, the first link is to Erik H., the second is the the survey itself.

by jcbetty on 2/8/2008 @ 2:41pm
--should be show up TO the caucuses, btw.

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 2:44pm
There really wasn't room for one more person in the field house for the Clinton event.

Yes, yes. But why did she select a smaller venue? Raw chance? Could there her anticipated draw? Comon. Each candidate has an incentive to draw the largest crowd possible.


by thriceallamerican on 2/8/2008 @ 2:45pm
Should be interesting to see what the caucuses are like this time. In 2004, there were more candidates still in the running (Kerry, Edwards, Dean, Kucinich, Clark, maybe others) so there was a lot more room for unviable candidates and people moving their allegiance around. This time I think a lot of people will show up with their minds made up, and a lot less vote switching. The big question is, how many fence-sitters will be showing up who need to be woo-ed one way or the other. Tell you one thing, we're making some cookies tonight to bring and share... ("Aw, those nice Obama supporters gave me a cookie...maybe I'll swing that way." Cookies work magic.)

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 2:55pm
Tell you one thing, we're making some cookies tonight to bring and share...

Yes you can!

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 2:56pm
Hillary also drew thousands last night at a Seattle event.

How many thousands?

by thriceallamerican on 2/8/2008 @ 2:56pm
Unfortunately for you, Erik, we live in the 98405. Unless you defect from the North End, no cookies for you...

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 2:59pm
Unfortunately for you, Erik, we live in the 98405. Unless you defect from the North End, no cookies for you...

Thanks. None needed here though.

Use them for people still trying to caucus for Kucinich and for those reminiscing about the days when Clinton was in the White House.

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 3:16pm
The money seems to be going Obama's way as well:

Even with the new rush of donations, Clinton has struggled to keep pace with Barack Obama, who brought in $32 million in January to Clinton's $13.5 million and has also seen a huge money uptick online this month.

Obama's fundraising got a significant boost in January following the endorsement of Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee. Kerry has a massive e-mail list of 3 million people that he tapped with a fundraising appeal for Obama on Jan. 10. Likewise, Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts raised money for Obama through his 250,000-person e-mail list.


www.foxnews.com/wires/2008Feb08/0,4670,D...

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 3:45pm
From the Stranger:


by TacomaGnome on 2/8/2008 @ 3:59pm
Well, for the undecided voters and caucus goers, we can't leave them out, can we?

There's an "Uncommitted Rally" tonight, 7 p.m. at the IBEW 76 hall.

3049 S 36th Street
Tacoma.

Should be a good time.

by TacomaGnome on 2/8/2008 @ 4:00pm
That's what someone told me at least ...

It's been windy and cold out there, I've been watching too much C-span and other channels.

This whole presidential thing has been interesting to observe.

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 4:03pm
It's been windy and cold out there, I've been watching too much C-span and other channels.

We get our day in the national spotlight. Might as well make the most of it.

by Jake on 2/8/2008 @ 4:04pm
Doors opened at 11am for the Rally starting at 12:30
By 11:30am when I was parking I was called and told the Key was full and nobody else could go in. There were tons of people on the streets and traffic was awful the freeways were all backed up.

So however many people were in Key Arena add THOUSANDS and THOUSANDS more that were turned away.

by thriceallamerican on 2/8/2008 @ 4:12pm
Jake:

I've heard that a crowd of the turned-away stuck around outside, chanting and otherwise making some noise for Obama, and that he came out either before or after his speech inside to briefly speak to them. Should've parked your car and stuck around...

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 4:16pm
It sounds like Clinton had planned to go to Tacoma's Convention center but things fell apart:

Convention center officials told Clinton’s campaign workers that the convention center had in-house audio visual people who could do the work that Geier’s company was planning to do, and the the in-house people were unionized.

When Geier heard this, he told the Clinton campaign that the convention center actually contracts with a Seattle company, The AV Factory, and that the company is non-union. The Clinton people went back to the convention center, and that’s when the talks went south.


Politics aside for a moment: Big, fancy, shiny, empty convention center in the middle of downtown Tacoma and the event could not be coordinated so Clinton had to go to the UPS gym. It wasn't her fault.

I think the convention center folks might want to get together and anticipate that it might be possible in the future that such a booking could come again. If Tacoma could be so lucky. Whatever union and "AV issues" need to be worked out beforehand so another high profile booking isn't blown. Then it needs to be placed in a three ring notebook for everyone to reference.

blogs.thenewstribune.com/politics/2008/0...



by Jake on 2/8/2008 @ 4:22pm
Yeah I wanted to do that and I figured the rally would continue outside and he would come out... but the person I was with did not want to "stand around outside"

by tacomachickadee on 2/8/2008 @ 6:16pm
Wow ... that's quite a misleading headline and some pretty twisted context content.

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 6:50pm
Wow ... that's quite a misleading headline and some pretty twisted context content.

What are you referring to?

My blog concerning the candidates or the TNT blog about the Convention Center losing the Clinton event?

Here's what Jake said about the Obama event in another thread:

Obama crowd is said to be 18,000 inside and 3,000 outside.
The 17,000 figure is the actual stated capacity of Key Arena


Both Hand blog came to a similar conclusion as well:

Even with their respective venue choices, I'd say that Obama could have easily had another 7 - 10 thousand people should he have chosen a larger venue. I don't think that Hillary could have drawn that kind of numbers.

However, tomorrow will be interesting as I have heard the UPS greek students will have some kind of mandatory event they have to attend at the same time as the caucus and may miss it.

bothhands.mu.nu/archives/254312.php

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 6:56pm
Wow ... that's quite a misleading headline and some pretty twisted context content.

Also, the Vancouver Sun makes a similar observation:

Doug Ward, Vancouver Sun
Published: Friday, February 08, 2008

SEATTLE - They began arriving at dawn this morning and they kept coming by the thousands, standing in the wind and cold for hours, and by noon nearly 20,000 people had jammed Key Arena under the Space Needle to hear America's newest political phenomenon...

His rival, Hillary Clinton, gave a spirited speech in Seattle Thursday night before an impressive audience of 5,000 people. But the thunderous reception given Obama today, on the eve of Saturday's Washington state caucus vote, was in another dimension.


www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/story.h...

That means 20,000 in Key Arena plus a few thousand that could not get in.

I think the consensus from what I have read is that Obama simply has a much greater ability to draw a crowd in Washington.

by tacomachickadee on 2/8/2008 @ 7:12pm
I'm not disagreeing or agreeing on who's getting the better reception, as it's been predicted that Obama would get the better reception in Washington ... just saying that you can't say a 3-to-1 preference based on attendance at locations where there are many factors (including venue) that make the two events an apples to oranges comparison rather than apples to apples. That's all. It's the fact-geek in me. Don't mess with facts. :)

by tacomachickadee on 2/8/2008 @ 7:16pm
And, admittedly, you did say "outdraw" which is attendance-based, I'll admit ... it just seems misleading. But I'm being niggly ... sorry! But after years of fretting over headline writing, I niggle. And I'm tired. And honestly still haven't a clue who to back at caucuses tomorrow.

by Erik on 2/8/2008 @ 7:27pm
just saying that you can't say a 3-to-1 preference based on attendance at locations

I never indicated there was a 3 to 1 preference for Obama based on the crowds drawn today. If it didn't change the URL of the post, I would actually change the draw to 4 to one as most reports are that there was a 20,000 crowd at Key Arena plus several thousand more. I actually wrote it being pretty conservative.

And, admittedly, you did say "outdraw" which is attendance-based, I'll admit ... it just seems misleading.

At least you admit it. :)

Isn't the headline literally true? Why do believe it is misleading? How were you mislead?

(True it does read a bit different than AP pieces. But would you really want Tacoma blogs to read like AP generic articles?)



by tacomachickadee on 2/8/2008 @ 7:58pm
Did I mention I'm tired?

As to misleading, it just seemed like when you have a poll or a scientific study and two different sides/scientists look at the same numbers/facts and come up with completely opposite conclusions. It's dizzying, that's all. You could say Obama drew so many more in Seattle vs. Clinton's T-town visit, but SHE WAS IN T-TOWN! I don't want future politicians to think it's BAD to come to T-Town. Go to Seattle and you'll get more people -- you just will. I don't want them to only go to Seattle.

by Jake on 2/8/2008 @ 9:07pm
Don't forget I-5 was backed up in both directions heading into DT Seattle. The news radio reported I-5 heading south was backed from Mercer to Northgate. They said it was because of the Obama rally.

I don't think venue matters. For all I know Key Arena could have held 15,000 and the field house at UPS could have held 10,000. If you are a strong supporter of your canidate you will make an effort to see them.

The strong supporters did and the numbers show who has a stronger supporter base.

by tacomachickadee on 2/8/2008 @ 9:31pm
All I'm saying is that when PUSA played at PLU, I'm guessing the crowd was smaller than they had at most Seattle shows.